Blended scenario adopted as preferred transit option - Camp Pendleton-Carlsbad rapid bus service included along with I-15 and I-5 toll lanes, widening of 76 east of 15

San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) staff developed two scenarios for the draft revenue-constrained Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) update, and the SANDAG board has selected a hybrid of the two scenarios as the preferred option to be analyzed in the environmental review process.

An 18-0 SANDAG board vote Sept. 12, with no City of Poway representative present, adopted the blended scenario as the preferred option. The draft environmental impact statement is expected to be released for public review and comment in spring 2015, and SANDAG is expected to adopt the updated plan later in 2015.

“I think the plan we have before us is fair. It’s a balanced approach for everyone,” said county Board of Supervisors member Dianne Jacob, who is one of two county supervisors on the SANDAG board.

Federal law requires a region which receives federal funding for transportation projects to update its long-range RTP every four years. The 2011 revenue-constrained RTP had projected expenditures of $213.8 billion, including $197 billion between 2014 and 2050.

The draft 2015 update calls for spending of $207 billion. Projected expenditures are reduced from $18 billion to $15 billion between 2014 and 2020, but 2021-35 spending increases from $58 billion to $60 billion and 2036-50 planned expenditures would increase from $121 billion to $132 billion.

The revenue forecasts include projections of anticipated federal, state, local, and private funds from existing and reasonably available future sources. The revenue projections include growth assumptions and potential new funding sources consistent with historical funding trends.

The half-cent TransNet sales tax for transportation was originally approved by the county’s voters in November 1987, and in November 2004 the voters approved a 40-year extension through 2048. The federal forecast requirement is only for 20 years, but because the TransNet tax will be collected through 2048 SANDAG approved a RTP through 2050 in October 2011.

The 2011 adoption of the plan through 2050 meant that few changes for specific projects will be needed for the update, which will focus on implementation. The 2011 plan did not include timeframes for projects which had not yet begun while the 2015 update will include phasing information.

The differences in the two scenarios developed by staff primarily involved express light rail service versus expanded rapid bus service and the phasing of freeway managed lanes.

One scenario called for “express” Metropolitan Transit System and North County Transit District light rail lines, providing commuters with non-stop connections, while also adding new light rail services in more densely populated areas.

The other scenario included new light rail lines but replaced the express light rail service with more widespread rapid bus service, including rapid bus service from Camp Pendleton to Carlsbad Village scheduled for 2036-50 in that scenario but not included in the express rail service scenario.

The first scenario added two managed lanes along the I-5 and I-805 corridors in an earlier phase with two additional managed lanes being added later; the second scenario added all four managed lanes at once while delaying additional managed lanes for State Route 78.

SANDAG’s board provided feedback and direction Aug. 15, although no vote was taken. The board expressed a preference for a hybrid scenario, which was developed by staff prior to the Sept. 12 board meeting. The blended scenario features the rapid bus service, including the line from Camp Pendleton to Carlsbad Village, but also adds the freeway managed lanes in phases.

“It’s the best thing for this region,” said county supervisor Ron Roberts, the other county supervisor on the SANDAG board.

The RTP includes privately-funded toll roads as well as highway, transit, and rail projects which would require publicly-provided revenue. The State Route 241 toll road between Orange County and Interstate 5 is part of the RTP, as are adding four toll lanes to the eight existing freeway lanes of Interstate 5 between Vandegrift Boulevard and the Orange County line and adding four toll lanes to the eight Interstate 15 freeway lanes between State Route 78 and the Riverside County border.

The I-5 and I-15 toll lanes are scheduled for the 2036-50 period. The I-5 toll lanes have a 2014 dollars cost estimate of $1.813 billion and the I-15 toll lanes have a cost estimate of $1.030 billion.

The State Route 241 schedule anticipates the $416 million construction of the first four toll lanes in the 2020-25 period and the $63 million construction of two additional toll lanes during 2025-30.

The $210 million widening of State Route 76 from two lanes to four between South Mission Road and I-15 is fully funded, and construction is scheduled to begin shortly and be completed in 2017, so that is included among the 2014-20 projects. Widening Highway 76 from Interstate 15 to Couser Canyon Road has a $131 million cost estimate and is in the 2036-50 timeframe.

The transit portion of the RTP calls for peak bus rapid transit between Temecula and Downtown San Diego through Escondido and for high-speed rail between Temecula and San Diego International Airport.

The RTP also includes a bicycle plan network. The San Luis Rey River Trail, which will include a path through the future San Luis Rey River Park, has an estimated cost of $37 million and is in the 2036-50 timeframe.